Unifying niche shift studies: insights from biological invasions.

Assessing whether the climatic niche of a species may change between different geographic areas or time periods has become increasingly important in the context of ongoing global change. However, approaches and findings have remained largely controversial so far, calling for a unification of methods. Here, we build on a review of empirical studies of invasion to formalize a unifying framework that decomposes niche change into unfilling, stability, and expansion situations, taking both a pooled range and range-specific perspective on the niche, while accounting for climatic availability and climatic analogy. This framework provides new insights into the nature of climate niche shifts and our ability to anticipate invasions, and may help in guiding the design of experiments for assessing causes of niche changes

Selecting predictors to maximize the transferability of species distribution models: lessons from cross-continental plant invasions

Aim: Niche-based models of species distribution (SDMs) are commonly used to predict impacts of global change on biodiversity but the reliability of these predictions in space and time depends on their transferability. We tested how the strategy to choose predictors impacts the SDMs' transferability at a cross-continental scale. Location: North America, Eurasia and Australia Method: We used a systematic approach including 50 Holarctic plant invaders and 27 initial predictor variables, considering 10 different strategies to variable selection, accounting for predictors' proximality, multicollinearity and climate analogy. We compared the average performance per strategy, some of them using a large number of random predictor combinations. Next, we looked for the single best model for each species across all possible predictor combinations, by pooling models across all strategies. Transferability was considered as the predictive success of SDMs calibrated in native range and projected onto the invaded range. Results: Two strategies showed better SDMs' transferability on average: a set of predictors known for their ecologically-meaningful effects on plant distribution, and the two first axes of a principal component analysis calibrated on all predictor variables (Spc2). From the >2000 combinations of predictors per species across strategies, the best set of predictors yielded SDMs with good transferability for 45 species (90%). These best combinations consisted in a random selection of 8 predictors (45 sp) and in Spc2 (5 sp). We also found that internal cross-validation was not sufficient to fully inform about SDMs' transferability to a distinct range. Main conclusion: Transferring SDMs at the macroclimatic scale, and thus anticipating invasions, is possible for the large majority of invasive plants considered in this study, but the predictions' accuracy relies strongly on the choice of predictors. From our results, we recommend including either the state-of-the-art proximal variables or a reduced and orthogonalised set to obtain robust SDMs' projections

Will climate change increase the risk of plant invasions into mountains?

Mountain ecosystems have been less adversely affected by invasions of non-native plants than most other ecosystems, partially because most invasive plants in the lowlands are limited by climate and cannot grow under harsher high-elevation conditions. However, with ongoing climate change, invasive species may rapidly move upwards and threaten mid-, and then high-elevation mountain ecosystems. We evaluated this threat by modeling the current and future habitat suitability for 48 invasive plant species in Switzerland and New South Wales, Australia. Both regions had contrasting climate interactions with elevation, resulting in possible different responses of species distributions to climate change. Using a species distribution modeling approach that combines data from two spatial scales, we built high-resolution species distribution models (≤ 250 m) that account for the global climatic niche of species and also finer variables depicting local climate and disturbances. We found that different environmental drivers limit the elevation range of invasive species in each of the two regions, leading to region-specific species responses to climate change. The optimal suitability for plant invaders is predicted to markedly shift from the lowland to the montane or subalpine zone in Switzerland, whereas the upward shift is far less pronounced in New South Wales where montane and subalpine elevations are already suitable. The results suggest that species most likely to invade high elevations in Switzerland will be cold-tolerant, whereas species with an affinity to moist soils are most likely to invade higher elevations in Australia. Other plant traits were only marginally associated with elevation limits. These results demonstrate that a more systematic consideration of future distributions of invasive species is required in conservation plans of not yet invaded mountainous ecosystems

E-commerce trade in invasive plants

Biological invasions are a major concern in conservation, especially because global transport of species is still increasing rapidly. Conservationists hope to anticipate and thus prevent future invasions by identifying and regulating potentially invasive species through species risk assessments and international trade regulations. Among many introduction pathways of non-native species, horticulture is a particularly important driver of plant invasions. In recent decades, the horticultural industry expanded globally and changed structurally through the emergence of new distribution channels, including internet trade (e-commerce). Using an automated search algorithm, we surveyed, on a daily basis, e-commerce trade on 10 major online auction sites (including eBay) of approximately three-fifths of the world’s spermatophyte flora. Many recognized invasive plant species (>500 species) (i.e., species associated with ecological or socio-economic problems) were traded daily worldwide on the internet. A markedly higher proportion of invasive than non-invasive species were available online. Typically, for a particular plant family, 30–80% of recognized invasive species were detected on an auction site, but only a few percentages of all species in the plant family were detected on a site. Families that were more traded had a higher proportion of invasive species than families that were less traded. For woody species, there was a significant positive relationship between the number of regions where a species was sold and the number of regions where it was invasive. Our results indicate that biosecurity is not effectively regulating online plant trade. In the future, automated monitoring of e-commerce may help prevent the spread of invasive species, provide information on emerging trade connectivity across national borders, and be used in horizon scanning exercises for early detection of new species and their geographic source areas in international trade

Repeat Ablation for Atrial Fibrillation Recurrence Post Cryoballoon or Radiofrequency Ablation in the FIRE and ICE Trial

Background: The FIRE AND ICE trial assessed efficacy and safety of pulmonary vein (PV) isolation using cryoballoon versus radiofrequency current (RFC) ablation in patients with drug refractory, symptomatic, paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (AF). The purpose of the current study was to assess index lesion durability as well as reablation strategy and outcomes in trial patients undergoing a reablation procedure. Methods: Patients with reablation procedures during FIRE AND ICE were retrospectively consented and enrolled at 13 trial centers. The first reablation for each patient was included in the analysis. Documented arrhythmias before reablation, number and location of reconnected PVs, lesions created during reablations, procedural characteristics, and acute as well as long-term outcomes were assessed. Results: Eighty-nine (36 cryoballoon and 53 RFC) patients were included in this study. Paroxysmal atrial fibrillation was the predominant recurrent arrhythmia (69%) before reablation. Reablations occurred at a median of 173 and 182 days (P=0.54) in the cryoballoon and RFC cohorts, respectively. The number of reconnected PVs was significantly higher in the RFC than the cryoballoon group (2.1\ub11.4 versus 1.4\ub11.1; P=0.010), which was driven by significantly more reconnected left superior PVs and markedly more reconnected right superior PVs. The number of (predominantly RFC) lesions applied during reablation was significantly greater in patients originally treated with RFC (3.3\ub11.3 versus 2.5\ub11.5; P=0.015) with no difference in overall acute success (P=0.70). After reablation, no differences in procedure-related rehospitalization or antiarrhythmic drug utilization were observed between cohorts. Conclusions: At reablation, patients originally treated with the cryoballoon had significantly fewer reconnected PVs, which may reflect RFC catheter instability in certain left atrial regions, and thus required fewer lesions for reablation success. Repeat ablations were predominantly performed with RFC and resulted in similar acute success, duration of hospitalization, and antiarrhythmic drug prescription between the study cohorts. Clinical Trial Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT03314753

Impact of Female Sex on Clinical Outcomes in the FIRE AND ICE Trial of Catheter Ablation for Atrial Fibrillation

BACKGROUND: Data on predictors of long-term clinical outcomes after catheter ablation of atrial fibrillation (AF) are limited. We sought to assess the association of baseline covariates with clinical outcomes in the 750 patients with drug-refractory paroxysmal AF enrolled in FIRE AND ICE. METHODS: In a 2-part analysis, univariate and multivariable Cox regression models were first used to identify baseline patient characteristics predictive of catheter ablation efficacy determined by the clinical end points of (1) atrial arrhythmia recurrence (primary efficacy failure), (2) cardiovascular rehospitalization, and (3) repeat ablation. Propensity score stratification methods were then used to account for differences in baseline characteristics between sexes. RESULTS: Female sex (hazard ratio [HR], 1.37; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.08-1.73; P=0.010) and prior direct current cardioversion (HR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.07-1.82; P=0.013) were independently associated with atrial arrhythmia recurrence. Female sex (HR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.02-1.80; P=0.035) and hypertension (HR, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.09-2.00; P=0.013) independently predicted cardiovascular rehospitalization. A longer history of AF (HR, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.00-1.06; P=0.039) increased the rate of repeat ablation. Women continued to have higher rates of primary efficacy failure and cardiovascular rehospitalization after propensity score adjustment, with adjusted HRs of 1.51 (95% CI, 1.16-2.18; P<0.05) and 1.40 (95% CI, 1.15-2.17; P<0.05), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: After catheter ablation of paroxysmal AF, female sex was associated with an almost 40% increase in the risks of primary efficacy failure and cardiovascular rehospitalization. Primary efficacy failure was also adversely impacted by a history of direct current cardioversion, whereas hypertension had a negative impact on cardiovascular rehospitalization. History of AF was the only predictor of repeat ablation

Explaining people’s perceptions of invasive alien species:A conceptual framework

Human perceptions of nature and the environment are increasingly being recognised as important for environmental management and conservation. Understanding people's perceptions is crucial for understanding behaviour and developing effective management strategies to maintain, preserve and improve biodiversity, ecosystem services and human well-being. As an interdisciplinary team, we produced a synthesis of the key factors that influence people's perceptions of invasive alien species, and ordered them in a conceptual framework. In a context of considerable complexity and variation across time and space, we identified six broad-scale dimensions: (1) attributes of the individual perceiving the invasive alien species; (2) characteristics of the invasive alien species itself; (3) effects of the invasion (including negative and positive impacts, i.e. benefits and costs); (4) socio-cultural context; (5) landscape context; and (6) institutional and policy context. A number of underlying and facilitating aspects for each of these six overarching dimensions are also identified and discussed. Synthesising and understanding the main factors that influence people's perceptions is useful to guide future research, to facilitate dialogue and negotiation between actors, and to aid management and policy formulation and governance of invasive alien species. This can help to circumvent and mitigate conflicts, support prioritisation plans, improve stakeholder engagement platforms, and implement control measures

Non-native Species and the Aesthetics of Nature

Howhumansperceiveandjudgenatureandrelateittotheirlifeisshaped by emotional, cognitive, cultural, and social factors. Whether a species is consid- ered native, non-native, or invasive can affect such aesthetics of nature by interact- ing with our emotions, affronting or confirming our cognitive categories, or engaging in our social, economic, and cultural worlds. Consequently, how humans perceive and judge the presence of such species, or how they judge an ecosystem or land- scape change triggered by them, is not fixed or easy to define. Here, some of the psychological, cognitive, and social dimensions that influence how humans judge non-native and invasive species and their effects on ecosystems are reviewed. It is concluded, at least in the case of non-native species, that the reduction of aesthetics to a ‘service’ is problematic, for it occludes the complex psychological and social processes that shape divergent perceptions of changing species distributions

Does public awareness increase support for invasive species management?:Promising evidence across taxa and landscape types

Management of invasive species often raises substantial conflicts of interest. Since such conflicts can hamper proposed management actions, managers, decision makers and researchers increasingly recognize the need to consider the social dimensions of invasive species management. In this exploratory study, we aimed (1) to explore whether species’ taxonomic position (i.e. animals vs. plants) and type of invaded landscape (i.e. urban vs. nonurban) might influence public perception about the management of invasive species, and (2) to assess the potential of public awareness to increase public support for invasive species management. We reviewed the scientific literature on the conflicts of interest around the management of alien species and administered two-phased questionnaires (before and after providing information on the target species and its management) to members of the public in South Africa and the UK (n = 240). Our review suggests that lack of public support for the management of invasive animals in both urban and non-urban areas derives mainly from moralistic value disagreements, while the management of invasive plants in non-urban areas mostly causes conflicts based on utilitarian value disagreements. Despite these general trends, conflicts are context dependent and can originate from a wide variety of different views. Notably, informing the public about the invasive status and negative impacts of the species targeted for management appeared to increase public support for the management actions. Therefore, our results align with the view that increased public awareness might increase the public support for the management of invasive species, independent of taxonomic position and type of landscape